Finally, after a lot of searching and a lot of complicated charts that weren’t exactly correct it appears that the Texas Delegates ended up totaling 115 for Cruz and 40 for Trump. If my math is correct that means that Super Tuesday was essentially a tie with a difference between Cruz and Trump of only 14 delegates. So while Trump racked up a bunch of states Cruz racked up a bunch of delegates. Which strategy is smarter? For Cruz it seems that this worked out pretty well especially when the polls had Trump winning both Oklahoma and Alaska.
Now that Carson is out of the race and Rubio is on his last legs and his numbers will in all likelihood begin to fall precipitously, Cruz will have a more open field in which to operate. The question is will it translate to votes which ultimately translates to delegates?
The current delegate count with the new Texas figures included would seem to be Trump at 321 and Cruz at 242 or a difference of 79 delegates. Over the next two weeks there are over 700 delegates at stake which tells us that this is still anybody’s race. The problem for Trump is that as the race narrows the conservative vote which has been split among Carson, Rubio and Cruz is going to begin tilting more toward Cruz. The Advantage for Trump is that some of his votes may have been going to Carson It is very likely that Carson who reportedly has been promised a place on the VP shortlist, will now endorse Trump. But, unfortunately for Trump, Kasich is still in the race and he like Trump is social moderate. He is head to head competition for Trump and will pilfer votes around the edges. Trump is currently winning delegates in the 46% range. From this point on he will need to increase that to 52% to collect enough delegates to win the nomination outright. The next few weeks are crucial to both the Cruz and Trump campaigns.
This is when the campaigns get down to brass tacks. Will the “Reagan Conservative” policies of Cruz be too much for the electorate? Has the nation moved too far to the center to embrace a Christian, Constitutional conservative? Will his ground game be able to overcome the high profile reality show of the Trump Campaign?
Conversely, will The Donald’s support of TrumpCare – single payer healthcare/socialized medicine and support for the very unpopular taxpayer funding of Planned Parenthood, along with his declaration that everything including immigration and “the wall” is negotiable and his promise to promote the homosexual agenda once in office, slow his momentum as “conservative” voters decide that maybe they need to take a second look at the Trump candidacy?
We’ll know a whole lot more in the next two weeks as the best reality show in politics continues.